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Investeen - 香港股市 » [轉貼]無規矩則無方圓──否定「價值投資」能否「炒股唔炒市」?(2008/09/08)

亞洲 & 港股 berntam on 19 Sep 2008 12:46 pm

[轉貼]無規矩則無方圓──否定「價值投資」能否「炒股唔炒市」?(2008/09/08)

大跌市當中二三線股固然被不問價拋售,上周開始個別典型「基金愛股」出現洗倉潮,連帶中移動、思捷環球、港機工程等即使宣佈業績勝於預期,也面對強力沽壓,於是便出現質疑價值投資法的言論,不但買入優質股涯倉被揶揄,更有人說信趨勢好過信價值投資法,據講幾十年前已看到價值投資法的漏洞所在。

「炒市唔炒股」比如炒期指、期權或指數ETF,當然是使用技術分析,價值投資法是無法教人炒市的,因為價值投資法的基石是「價值與價格出現分歧」,在價格低於價值時買入,在價格高於價值時賣出,而非預測市況。事實上價格偏低可以再跌,價格偏高亦可以繼續升,以低於價值的價格買股票涯價,亦非戰之罪而避無可避。

「炒股唔炒市」則要選擇投資對象,比如選股要找出跑贏的股票,當然亦可以用技術分析。交易系統可以用來炒市,亦可以用來選擇突破在即的股票,似乎比價值投資法更勝一籌。但一般人的實戰經驗,並不如想像中理想,究其原因,是理想的交易系統並非一朝一夕能建立,亦不是尋常人所能掌握。此乃投資分析兩大門派可以並存的根本原因。

投資分析方法五花百門,比如「牛眼投資法」是基本分析的一個分支,原作者John Mauldin 網站中(http://www.johnmauldin.com/bullseye.html)其中一段介紹:” Bull’s Eye Investing helps you think outside of the Wall Street box and focus on finding value and controlling risk.”簡而言之,這種分析方法是發掘股票的另類價值,而非全盤否定價值投資。

技術分析是解讀趨勢的工具,基本分析是估值的工具。筆者不會單獨偏重其一,更何況對任何一方作出否定。離開「價值投資」,又應以甚麼方法選股呢?恐怕連John Mauldin亦答不上口。即使引用對沖概念,同時睇好睇淡不同行業,離開「價值投資」又如何作出取捨?

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